• We have found that the nCoV outbreak has far-reaching and catastrophic impacts as the total number of confirmed cases and the death toll is increasing day by day all over the world. More seriously, the impact of nCoV covers almost every single sector in Vietnam, ranging from industry, manufacturing and processing industry, textiles, footwear to entertainment, service, agricultural products. In the short run, the industry affected most quickly and clearly is tourism given the substantial decline in the number of visitors as many tours have been delayed even cancelled. Export of agricultural products has been congested at border gates of China; Entertainment, transportation and aviation services all have low traffic of customers.

These impacts are continuing because it not only results in the reduced demand but also the flow of traffic, and the supply for Vietnam’s manufacturing industries is in short supply as well. For example, many factories in China are reducing capacity, even halting production due to the outbreak while it is the input of many production value chains.

• I think that the development of this outbreak is still unclear whether it will decrease or when it will end. So there will be even more negative effects. For example, given the impact in the first quarter of 2020, according to preliminary calculations, if Vietnam wants to achieve the set target of GDP growth of 6.8%, it will not be simple. To achieve this growth, the following quarters must see a much higher performance.

• The solution is already seen. Following the Government’s direction, many industries have joined in an emergency response to nCoV. For example, from a financial perspective, the State Bank issued Official Letter No. 541 / NHNN-TD dated February 4, 2020 on “Implementation of measures to repair the damage caused by the nCoV outbreak”.

• Accordingly, the State Bank required the commercial banking system to proactively grasp performance of production and business, the extent of losses to customers who are borrowing given the impacts of the nCoV outbreak to promptly apply proper measures to support and lessen difficulties for customers such as rescheduling debt and reducing loan interests in accordance with prevailing regulations. On the other hand, coordinating with departments, agencies to timely advise the People’s Committee of the province and city on solutions to deal with risks, support and resolve difficulties for businesses and individuals suffering from damage as prescribed. In which, it is necessary to avoid abusing the supporting mechanism to affect the credit market and the classification and handling of bad debts. Implementing this policy, many commercial banks immediately took part in, reducing interest rates, restructuring debts for customers affected by nCoV.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has worked with localities to resolve difficulties for congested agricultural products at border gates; study and review the value chain and directions to boost domestic consumption. The ministry also outlines different scenarios for more comprehensive support packages.

The tourism industry has also rushed to restructure the market, identify partners, assess damage to provide support accordingly. The Ministry of Information and Communication has promoted the propaganda of outbreak information to the people, and in my opinion, the information is very important because the biggest impact is not necessarily the outbreak itself but excessive panic and fear.

But in my opinion, it all depends on the situation ahead.

Based on the above analysis, the nCoV outbreak is still at the epicenter with no signs of cool-off, which threatens the business activities of most industries and sectors. In parallel with the tourism industry, the aviation industry is suffering from “huge” losses and the situation is expected to remain gloomy in the next few months.

• The delay of flights to China has caused serious damage to Vietnam’s aviation industry because China is currently the second largest market after the Northeast Asian for Vietnamese aviation.

• Typically, at Vietnam Airlines, routes to China account for 10% of flight-route share, the suspension will directly affect 70,000 passengers (not including the number of passenger transit here). If the epidemic persists, it is predicted that the airline could lose $196 million.

The stock market is not better, only from January 30 to February 6, HVN share of Vietnam Airlines fell 6,600 VND (down 20.12% of the value), equivalent to a loss of more than VND 9,300 billion. Similarly, Vietjet Air’s share has decreased by VND 19,500 (decrease 12.97% in value), causing capitalization to “evaporate” VND 10,300 billion.