According to economics experts, by 2020, the agriculture industry will continue to face many difficulties due to novel Coronavirus, drought, salinization, incompletely contained African swine fever epidemic, H5N6, H5N1 avian influenza and an existing yellow card for export of seafood products issued by the European Commission… However, they also said that, if Vietnam can contain the African swine fever epidemic and pork production recovers along with continued market expansion, the growth of these sectors is forecast to recover in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

For example, with regard to the rice sector, in a recent meeting with the top 10 exporters, Mr. Tran Quoc Khanh, Deputy Minister of Ministry of Industry and Trade considered the impact of swine fever epidemic on the rice sector insignificant because in January 2020 that fell on the Tet holiday, rice exports still reached over 410 thousand tons, equivalent to over US $196 million, decreasing by 4.6% in volume but increasing by 2.2% in value. This is a positive signal. Mr. Khanh also expects rice export to increase in the coming months due to increasing consumption in Africa and stable import demand of India and China. Accordingly, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that rice exports in 2020 will keep relatively unchanged as compared to 2019, amounting to over 6 million tons of rice.

As for seafood, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Export and Producers (VASEP), said that the impact of Coronavirus outbreak on seafood export in the first months of the year was not too severe. The reason is that in practice, after March and April every year, Chinese seafood import orders started to increase.

Mr. Hoe further stated that 2020 will see many big events such as the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, Euro 2020 finals, boosting seafood consumption demand in Japan and European countries, especially shrimp. Therefore, the demand for shrimp is expected to increase, creating opportunities for shrimp exporters around the world. Vietnamese seafood enterprises can take advantage of this opportunity to increase exports.

In fact, for those seafood export enterprises not dependent on China, their export is not reduced. Representative of Viet Long Saigon Joint Stock Company affirmed that the outbreak did not affect the export activities of the company via EU, US, and Japan. Currently, orders are still transacted normally without any interruption.

It is similar when it comes to the wood sector, Nguyen Liem, Director of Lam Viet Company, shared that the Coronavirus outbreak did not affect the export of the wood sector as the majority of Vietnam’s wood and wood products are exported to other markets like Europe, Korea, Japan. Regarding the input, most of the raw materials in the furniture production of Vietnamese enterprises are imported from the US, Europe, Taiwan, Germany, Italy and some other markets with sustainable wood origin.

Although experts and many businesses are quite optimistic, the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on agriculture and forestry is unavoidable. In fact, the export of agricultural products is seriously reduced in the Chinese market, and many businesses are still afraid that when the flu goes away, the demand of the market will be more or less reduced. In this context, in order to minimize losses, many responsive measures have been urgently implemented by businesses.

• Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector: recomenmend businesses to switch to some potential markets…

Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen – General Secretary of Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that earlier this year the Association expected Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector will reach an export turnover of about US $5 billion in 2020. However, after Tet to date, export condition has reversed because the export of vegetables and fruits to merely the Chinese market each month decreased by about US $200 million. If the prolonged loss is not small, the association estimates that this year’s export is only about US $3 billion.

• Seafood: planning of aquaculture areas, seed quality management, production training

For seafood, according to VASEP, it is not possible to predict what scenario will happen to this sector. So VASEP is actively working with leading companies to plan aquaculture areas, manage seed quality, provide training on production in accordance with VietGAP, GlobalGAP… for farmers to get ready for shrimp and pangasius farming when the outbreak is over; At the same time, it is recommended that enterprises carefully study new generation FTAs and well prepare certificates related to the environmental and social responsibility.

• Rice sector: closely monitoring the market, promptly proposing solutions

• Enterprises: produce in value chains, strictly control the process

Mr. Nguyen Tien Dung – Deputy Director of Food Business of Loc Troi Group, said that apart from producing rice under the value chain, and creating raw material areas to tightly control the process from planting to classification when harvested, the company had processing at the factory gradually reduce packed rice by 25 – 50 kg and mainly produced packaged products of 5 – 10 kg. This helps Loc Troi to expand the market, meet the needs of customers, thereby improving export turnover.

• Access to the domestic market is also considered an urgent solution to reduce the pressure on exports, which requires strategy and methodical direction.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Director of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences commented, “We have to take into account the real needs in the domestic market, but do not think the country has loose requirements for products, which is wrong.” Currently, in big cities like TP. Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi… consumers are very concerned about quality, especially food hygiene and safety issues. They tend to consume foreign products because they think they possess good quality.